‘Above-average growth’ expected in Census of Trussville

Like a green vine of kudzu, Trussville continues to grow.

And that vine shows no signs of slowing down any time soon.

In the upcoming 2020 U.S. Census, Trussville officials expect the city’s population to swell to approximately 23,500 people, based on housing starts, average persons per household and annexations since the 2010 Census.

“It might be a little north of that,” Trussville City Clerk Lynn Porter said.

Census figures from 2010 reported 19,933 people living in Trussville. If that population rises to 23,500 people in 2020, that would be an 18% increase. Mayor Buddy Choat said factors such as parks, shopping, Trussville City Schools and a forthcoming entertainment district are contributing to Trussville’s growth.

“We’re not far out,” Choat said. “They can see Trussville as being on the edge out here, kind of ready. I would say ready to burst, but I think we’ve already in the last 10 years seen that. No doubt about it.”

The 2020 Census can be responded to online, as well as by telephone and mail. An invitation letter is expected to reach residents’ mailboxes in mid-March. Data is confidential and is not shared with the Internal Revenue Service, law enforcement, courts or immigration.

“It’s all statistical data,” Porter said. “This is strictly counting people.”

The Census will affect Trussville’s funding in a big way for the next decade. Gasoline tax funds, including the state’s new 10-cent gas tax, are based on Trussville’s Census count for the next 10 years. Internet sales tax is distributed on a population basis from the Census count. Capital improvement funds and other funds from the state are allocated by Census population. Businesses use Census data to determine where to build offices, stores and industrial facilities.

Census statistics are the basis for federal dollars and grant funding, including programs such as Medicaid; the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children; the National School Lunch Program; and Head Start. Each person counted generates nearly $1,600 in federal funding for Alabama and its communities. With less than an 80% response statewide, Alabama may lose up to two seats in Congress. With less than a 90% statewide response, it could lose one seat.

“It’s a bigger deal than a lot of people think,” Porter said.

Porter, looking at a city map, said Trussville borders Argo, Birmingham, Clay, Leeds, Margaret and Moody.

“In one standpoint, there is a finite amount of growth that we could have, but unlike some cities like Homewood and Mountain Brook, we do have some area to grow where they’re totally surrounded by developed portions of cities,” she said.

At some point, the city could have maximum saturation, but there are still areas that could be developed, leading to a population increase.

“Our growth has been above average,” she said.

Choat said “it’s almost hard to believe,” but based on trends over the past few decades and projections for this Census, Trussville could top 35,000 residents by 2040.

“I think it’s realistic to think that Trussville could easily hit the 30,000 to 35,000 population,” he said. “There’s a lot of interest in the way that Trussville is changing, a good change.”