The new playbook

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This is part 1 of a 2-part series examining the rapidly changing landscape of college sports. Read Part 2, Updating the playbook: Paying the athletes here.

Deuce Alston is always on the move.

Whether it’s football, wrestling or training, the rising senior at Hewitt-Trussville High School keeps striving.

Every move matters when attempting to garner the attention of college football coaches.

Alston is a 6-foot, 200-pound running back who aims to set himself apart from the other players of similar stature and ability in his class. As part of a talented Hewitt-Trussville offense, he won’t have the eye-popping statistics or the viral highlights, so the details are significant.

“For example, as a running back, college coaches want to see more than just running the ball,” Alston said. “They want to see blocking, pass protection, fakes and route running. These are the things that make you valuable as a running back.”

Alston has hopes of one day competing at the next level, and he knows this is a critical time for him.

“Over the last couple of weeks, I’ve been setting up my official visits,” Alston said in mid-May. “At the beginning of this year, my recruiting started to pick up. I went from having two offers to 18.”

Alston dreams of being the next great running back, but competition is stiffer than ever to land at a top program out of high school.

“There are fewer scholarship spots,” said ESPN recruiting analyst Tom Luginbill. “Schools used to divide scholarships among high school prospects. Now, they save 12-14 for portal players. High school kids have fewer options, and many are being forced into choices they wouldn't have made otherwise.”

SHIFTING SAND

Coaches are no longer building around potential. They’re buying certainty. Between the rise of the transfer portal, the explosion of Name, Image and Likeness (NIL) dollars, and the impending House v. NCAA court settlement that could allow direct revenue-sharing paychecks from schools to athletes, the entire scholarship model has changed.

For high school seniors, that means fewer opportunities. Unless you’re elite, the message is clear: wait your turn — or get left behind.

In place of the old system is a new billion-dollar industry in which high school prospects are still commodities — just ones with less value than they held before the money started flowing.

Not all college programs play on the same field. The “Power Four” conferences — the SEC, Big Ten, Big 12 and ACC — have TV deals, booster collectives and NIL opportunities.

Below them are “Group of Five” schools like UAB or Troy — with fewer scholarships, smaller budgets and less exposure. Then come FCS, D2 and junior colleges, where many now land by necessity.

THE PORTAL JAM

For decades, high school football was the bedrock of college recruiting. Talent rose, coaches scouted, scholarships followed and dreams materialized on National Signing Day.

That world is gone.

It started with COVID. In 2020, the NCAA granted all athletes an extra year of eligibility. That decision created a massive traffic jam. Fifth-year seniors stayed. Sixth-year players reclassified. Scholarships that would have gone to high school seniors disappeared.

Then came NIL. In July 2021, athletes could finally earn money off their name, image and likeness. But what was meant to reward marketability became a loosely disguised pay-for-play market.

“Monetary compensation is no longer based on results,” Luginbill said. “It’s not about ‘if I produce, schools will want me.’ Now, it’s ‘how much are you going to pay me to play here?’ There’s no accountability from the player’s side, and that’s not what NIL was intended for — certainly not in recruiting.”

At the same time, the transfer portal exploded. The NCAA removed the sit-out rule for first-time transfers, and a flood of player movement followed. A new reality emerged: Why recruit a high school senior you’ll have to develop when you can buy a 22-year-old with experience?

“Unless you've been tampered with or have significant production, you're either transferring down or walking on somewhere,” Luginbill said. “The math doesn’t add up. There just aren’t enough roster spots. Kids are being misled, believing they’re worth more than they are. This is happening to thousands of players.”

According to On3 Sports, more than 4,000 FBS football players entered the NCAA transfer portal during this cycle — and more than 1,600 are still looking for a home. In men’s basketball, 2,320 players entered the portal this spring, per Verbal Commits — a jump of more than 11 percent from last year, and nearly 2.5 times more than five years ago.

This isn’t just a revenue-sport issue. Since the NCAA eliminated its one-year sit-out rule in 2021, tens of thousands of athletes across all sports have entered the portal — many of them two, three or even four times. Each year of the NIL era has accelerated the cycle. In 2024, the NCAA opened the door to unlimited transfers.

Combine that with the backlog of COVID players, and the result is a recruiting funnel that narrows further every season. And it’s about to get even tighter, as schools prepare for revenue sharing and potential roster caps tied to the House settlement.

Coach Trent Dilfer came to UAB with a plan to build his program through high school recruiting — but that vision didn’t hold. He watched promising redshirt freshmen get poached, impact players leave mid-development and recruiting calendars shift. Now, he’s saving scholarships for older transfers. Like most coaches, he’s frustrated by the chaos and eager for structure.

“All I need is guardrails, all I need is boundaries, all I need is where it is,” Dilfer told Birmingham’s CBS 42. “I don't care where the goal post is, just keep it stationary… Because right now this goal post is going around 360 degrees because there’s zero leadership, there’s zero boundaries, there’s zero guardrails.”

MANAGING EXPECTATIONS

But this isn’t just about numbers. It’s about expectations — and the widening gap between what kids believe they’re walking into and what actually waits.

For years, high school athletes have been surrounded by talk of NIL money, brand building and recruiting leverage. Highlight reels and camp circuits — all of it reinforcing the same narrative: play well, get noticed, get paid. But most never make it that far.

“High school kids now believe they're entitled to compensation,” Luginbill said. “But the original intent was that if a college athlete… became a marketable commodity, they could earn income. What we’re seeing now is far removed from that.”

Even for players who eventually cash in, the road usually starts somewhere less glamorous — a Group of Five school, a redshirt year, a position change, a climb. That could hold true for Alston. Among his early offers were

only two power conference schools: Kentucky and Minnesota.

“The transfer portal has made it harder for high schoolers to land spots at Power Four programs,” said Jim Cavale, CEO of Athletes.org. “Starting at a Group of Five school and working your way up may be the best path.”

BACK-END FALLOUT

While these dynamics affect every sport, the epicenter is football and men’s basketball — where the bulk of the money flows and the pressure to win immediately is highest.

According to research on signing day trends, once-powerhouse programs are producing fewer high-major signees and more D2, JUCO and NAIA placements. In other sports — baseball, wrestling, lacrosse, even track — the scholarship slots are already shrinking. If roster

caps go into effect, they may vanish altogether.

Whatever happens next — roster limits, direct pay, new NIL rules — the path for high school athletes is narrowing fast. And for players like Alston, that means more than just navigating offers. It means trying to stay in the game.

“It’s challenging to know which conversations are genuine and which are not,” he said. “I thought I would have until December to make my decision; however, everything moves so fast that if you hesitate, you might lose your spot.”

At the same time, Alston realizes the importance of weighing the traditional factors — facilities, coaching staffs, rosters, etc. — alongside many of today’s pressing topics.

“You have to do your homework,” he said.